Winnipeg has passed 850,000 residents, largely driven by immigration, with projections of 900,000 within a decade and one million within 25 years. Yet immigration is slowing as climate change, global instability and shifting federal priorities reshape migration. To keep growth affordable, we must rethink how we build and move through the city.
Winnipeg has long been seen as a small big city, shaped by sustained immigration. Programs such as the Provincial Nominee Program have helped drive population growth. Winnipeg also now has over 102,000 Indigenous residents — the largest urban Indigenous population in Canada, many of Métis ancestry. Together, I believe Indigenous peoples and immigrants have anchored the city’s labour force and economic resilience.
Winnipeg’s growth is now at risk as federal plans to reduce immigration threaten the city’s population trajectory. Despite critics like Alberta’s Danielle Smith calling for reduced immigration, these pressures will persist — and likely intensify — as geopolitical crises and extreme weather from climate change, here and globally, displace people.
Environmental science journalist Gaia Vince, in a 2022 piece for the BBC, noted that hundreds of millions of people have been projected to need to flee their homes by 2050 due to the impacts of climate change. From northern Manitoban wildfires to global heatwaves, instability will drive movement toward safer regions. Winnipeg is not yet strategically prepared for this rapidly shifting reality.
Winnipeg continues to underinvest in sustainable mobility while committing over $1 billion to road‑widening projects like Kenaston and Chief Peguis. A stronger transit system, 30 km/h neighbourhood networks and river‑trail pathways would better support equitable, low‑carbon travel and Indigenous land stewardship.
Meanwhile, Winnipeg had the highest share of new housing built in sprawling areas from 2016–2021, and developed land grew 96 per cent between 1971 and 2019 as 82,000 residents from mature communities left. With more than 80 per cent of trips made by car, transit ridership has eroded, and the city now faces nearly $8 billion infrastructure deficit, rising property taxes and deteriorating satisfaction among users of Winnipeg Transit, according to a 2025 City of Winnipeg satisfaction survey.
Winnipeg can only lead by building smarter and more sustainably. That means shifting funding away from billion‑dollar road expansions and into stronger Winnipeg Transit service, more buses, a properly financed bus garage and affordable or fare‑free options for youth, seniors and low‑income riders. Completing a citywide active transportation network — linking 30 km/h streets, paths and river trails — would expand safe mobility for people who rely most on transit.
Winnipeg’s future depends on remaining welcoming to newcomers while sustaining the country’s largest urban Indigenous population. That requires using resources wisely by building more efficiently, prioritizing equitable and cost‑effective transportation and reinvesting in inner‑city neighbourhoods so they once again form a strong backbone of the city. Growing sustainably is the way Winnipeg can stay resilient in a rapidly changing world.
Winnipeg cannot ignore the external political forces and climate change that are going to shape our future in population growth. While the growth currently may not be as fast as initially expected, these external forces will play a hand in how we look at our city, as displacement will continue to influence who comes here and why.
As Vince said in the BBC, “Only strong nation states will be capable of setting up the systems of governance that will help our species survive climate change.” Winnipeg must be ready to grow at a smarter, more equitable and environmentally sustainable level than ever before. We have a chance to build our city stronger and better for everyone.
Adam Johnston hosts “Not Necessarily The Automobile” on Thursdays at 11:30 a.m. on UMFM 101.5. He can be reached at [email protected].
