On voter turnout

U of Montreal prof finds no cure for politics

Tessa Vanderhart, Staff

With the fall of the government on Monday, Nov. 28, Andre Blais and the Canadian Electoral Study will be heading out to find out why you vote — but he’s not sure that democratic reforms or the sponsorship scandal will change it.

Blais — a professor of political science at the University of Montreal and Canada Research Chair in electoral studies — studies voter turnout because of his own concern that Canadians are not fulfilling their duty to vote.

“Turnout has been going down, as you may know. In the last couple of elections, we’ve had a special interest in what makes people decide to vote or not to vote.”

And, Blais said, the main factor in this decision is duty. This duty, deep-rooted in most older Canadians, may not apply as much to younger Canadians — but it will, he said, stick it out for this election.

“When we studied the impact of the scandal last time, in 2004, it didn’t seem to have any impact on citizens’ cynicism. We’ll see what impact it has this time; it’s unlikely to help, I think.”

Blais noted that strong preferences for one party or candidate can entice people to vote, especially among young people — meaning that ambivalence about political parties, as manifested in the sponsorship scandal, could also contribute to low voter turnout, though this is not necessarily the case.

“I don’t think parties are becoming more similar,” said Blais. “If you compare the situation now to the situation 30 years ago, I think you’ve got more choice . . . . even if young people don’t see it that way.”

He noted the Bloc Quebecois and the Green party as options that are now viable choices — but cynicism remains.

“From a general perception that politics doesn’t go anywhere, [people are] so dissatisfied that they just can’t see anything good in politics.”

But, he noted, Canada does not have more of a problem with voter turnout than other countries, nor are we alone in voter apathy — so perhaps these issues, though worrying, don’t require drastic changes to the way Canadians vote.

“More people are switching out of politics — and I think that’s a cause for concern,” said Blais. “One reason could be the media: when do you get a positive report on politics in the media? When do you get a report saying how good or how great that politician is?”

But, he noted, it may also be an indication that people are thinking more critically about politics and society, and independence isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

Blais cited the Nov. 28 referendum on a hybrid system of proportional representation in PEI — which voters rejected — and last month’s vote in BC on the single transferable ballot system as examples of attempts to change the way Canadians vote. He also said that electoral reform, short of compulsory voting, would have little impact on voter turnout, given that decreased participation is more a sign of broad social change than the public’s misgivings about the current government.

Still, he doesn’t detract from the importance of the sponsorship scandal in the election: although it may not impact voter turnout, it will certainly inspire political discourse.

Blais said that this cynicism lends itself to an overly harsh view of politicians, but that as an occupation, politicians are not any more corrupt than other people.

“People should not have too high expectations. You should not expect politics to solve all your problems; what you should hope for is politics to be just slightly better than it used to be, recognizing that there will always be politics.”