The end of oil

A glimpse of a future

Shawna Sweeney, Volunteer Staff

Millions and millions of years ago the entire world was inhabited by dinosaurs. They lumbered around doing dinosaur things like eating and sleeping until one day they all died. Over time, they were compacted with plant matter to form oil and remained in the ground until human beings realized they could be used for fuel. Unfortunately, since there were only so many dinosaurs and plants to begin with, there is only so much oil.

In the 1950s, a geologist named M. King Hubbert supported this conventional wisdom with a theory called peak oil. He reported that every oil well follows a bell curve of production. When tapped, each well gushes with a great deal of natural pressure, but as the oil is depleted it has to be pumped out using gas or water to compensate for declining pressure. Eventually the well hits a “peak” and oil production declines until it is exhausted.

Many of the world’s largest oil fields are now reaching maturity and moving into decline. The United States hit peak oil production in 1970. The United Kingdom hit peak oil in 1999. In total, 33 of the 48 largest oil-producing countries are now in decline.

Energy experts and geologists have predicted a wide variety of dates for the onset of global peak oil. The years range from 2006 to 2030, with a bulk of predictions falling between 2006 and 2010. It is probable that the halcyon days of abundant petroleum fuels are nearly over.

The problem is that petroleum is at the bottom of nearly everything involved with contemporary life in the industrialized world. The economies and lifestyles of entire nations hinge on the availability of cheap oil. If it disappears more quickly than we can adapt to using alternative fuels, then life as we have known it is over.

Driving traditional vehicles of any kind will become a thing of the past. All of the cars, trucks, buses, semis, boats and airplanes will grind to a halt. There could be major transportation and shipping shortages as industries collapse under the economic strain.

Purge any thoughts of electricity, running water or heat. Without fossil fuels, we will not be able to keep the power and water processing plants online. The lights will not come on, the toilets will not flush and the fridge will not keep anything cold.

Advanced medical treatment will be unavailable as equipment lies dormant and we no longer have the means to produce antibiotics or designer drugs to curb or cure illness. Disease could run rampant across the population.

Food may become difficult to find, as farms not only reduce their yields, but discover they have no way to transport food into a city. Tractors and farm machinery will collect dust and reduce the volume of land that can be easily seeded. Fertilizers and pesticides are also petroleum-based, and their disappearance could herald the dire threat of weed encroachment, insect infestations and soil fertility issues.

None of these doomsday predictions sound very pleasant, but the good news is that none of them actually have to occur. The bad news is that they very well might. With the right combination of advance planning and alternative fuels, it is possible that we could weather the future storm without a major catastrophe. Historically, however, human beings have been notoriously shortsighted when it comes to the future. Tragedy often has to intervene before any positive change can take place.

Here’s hoping we can get it together before we meet the same fate as the dinosaurs.